Heterogeneity Under Population Loss: Spatial and Strategic Planning in Shrinking Cities in the Komi Republic

Abstract

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, cities in the Komi Republic experienced depopulation, particularly in the northern mining-dependent part of the region. This article examines the development strategies implemented by local governments in the shrinking cities of the Komi Republic to address population decline. Through quantitative analysis of population growth rates of all cities in the region, we identified nine continuously shrinking cities between 1989 and 2021 and one episodically shrinking city between 2010 and 2021. Empirically, the study is based on the analysis of sixteen official documents, including eight socio-economic development strategies and eight general plans. The results reveal diversity in cities’ approaches to the population decline. Despite the centralized governance and limited municipal autonomy in Russia, cities in the Komi Republic employ various adaptation-to-shrinkage models. Additionally, there are noted conflicts between strategic planning and spatial planning documents, particularly regarding population forecasts and housing sector development. The analysis indicates that local governments often acknowledge depopulation in socio-economic development strategies more readily than in general plans. Therefore, the issue is not necessarily an overall neglect of shrinkage but rather a denial of this phenomenon, predominantly within territorial planning.