Suburbanization in the COVID-19 Era: Will Traditional Dachas Survive in Russia?

Abstract

Based on scenario analysis, the p per analyzes suburbanization trends during the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia. The features of suburbanization in the Soviet period are described, main elements of traditional dachas and dacha lifestyle are characterized with regard their sustainability and resilience, and ability to preserve their main features and elements. The paper examines changes in the lifestyle and social practices of citizens, their attitudes towards dachas, and their suburban lifestyle during the pandemic. Based on the analysis of the driving forces of suburbanization and considering the impact of Covid-19, two scenario axes were identified pandemic restrictions and economic tools to support suburban construction, which served as the basis for the development of four scenarios — “suburban stagnation”, “dacha renaissance”, “suburbs for riches” and “suburbia boom”. The scenario analysis undertaken in the study showed that the phenomenon of the traditional dacha will survive as a distinctive feature of Russian suburbanization in the short and medium-term, with a gradual dying out of the trend. The sustainability factors of traditional dachas are grouped into three clusters: legal, economic, and socio-cultural. The resilience of dachas is supported by the following factors: 1) the existence of a generation that received dachas during the Soviet era and maintains dacha practices established several decades ago; 2) the presence of categories of citizens for whom dachas are a source of food or affordable and cheap housing or a cheap opportunity for summer vacations; 3) the preservation of the cultural cliche of the urban way of life and its opposition to the rural one as poor, uncomfortable and difficult; 4) insufficient development of legal and economic instruments to support suburban construction and its relative unattractiveness for banks and developers; 5) the underdevelopment of social infrastructure in rural (even suburban) areas and the low level of services provided; 6) the impossibility of low-cost transformation of summer cottages into comfortable permanent housing, combined with an inadequate price-quality ratio of summer cottages on the real estate market.