Autonomous Vehicles: Prospects and Expected Consequences of Expansion

  • Mikhail Y. Blinkin Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy Studies at Faculty of Urban and Regional Development, HSE University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4656-0524
  • Anastasia A. Kulakova Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy Studies, Faculty of Urban and Regional Development, HSE University
Keywords: autonomous vehicles (AV), dynamic driving task, ADAS, road capacity, parking space, transport behavior, road safety, resettlement, land use

Abstract

This article provides an overview of the prospects and expected consequences on the automotive market and traffic flow related to the mass appearance of autonomous vehicles (AV) . The term AV refers to vehicles equipped with software and hardware to assist the driver with "dynamic driving tasks", and ultimately will be capable of replacing the traditional "biological" driver with a "digital" one.

A modern 6-level classification of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is presented from Level 0 at which the car is equipped only with ABS, to Level 5 at which full driving automation is achieved. Level 5 vehicles do not require human attention, here "dynamic driving tasks" as such are eliminated from the user’s competence (no longer the driver!). Level 5 (fully automated) vehicles do not have a steering wheel, accelerator, or brake pedal.

Legal restrictions related to fundamental additions and changes to the Vienna Convention on Road Traffic of 1968, according to which “every vehicle or combination of vehicles shall have a driver”; “Every driver shall possess the necessary physical and mental abilities […] to drive” and “the knowledge and skills required for driving the vehicle” are also considered.

The article analyzes the expected positive and negative consequences associated with the mass appearance of Level 3, Level 4 and, especially, Level 5 vehicles. The emphasis is on the consequences of this phenomenon, which are of particular interest in the urban and transport-urban planning aspects such as the impact on land use and settlement formats, the transport behavior of individuals, the territorial preferences of households and companies, the capacity of roads, splitting the demand for movement between individual and public transаport, and road safety. The general conclusion is that the impact of the mass appearance of AV on the car market and traffic flow will be comparable in scale and long-term consequences to the process of mass motorization of the population started at the beginning of the 20th century.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Mikhail Y. Blinkin, Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy Studies at Faculty of Urban and Regional Development, HSE University

PhD, Tenured Professor, Academic Supervisor, Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy Studies at Faculty of Urban and Regional Development; Academic Supervisor, Faculty of Urban and Regional Development, HSE University

Anastasia A. Kulakova, Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy Studies, Faculty of Urban and Regional Development, HSE University

Leading expert, Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy Studies, Faculty of Urban and Regional Development, HSE University

References

Беспилотные автомобили в России (2022) TADVISER. Режим доступа:

https://www.tadviser.ru/a/363284 (дата обращения: 28.08.2023).

Варианский В. И. (1973) Коллективное поведение автоматов. М.: Наука.

Жидкин В.Ф. (2018) Развитие Новой Москвы на 2035 год//NUV «Город». Режим доступа: https://urbanru.ru/wpcontent/uploads/2018/02/TASS_Zhidkin.pdf (дата обращения: 28.06.2023).

countries where truckers make the most money (2021). Режим доступа: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/10-countries-where-truckers-make-the-most-money (дата обращения: 28.06.2023).

Gazis D.C., Herman R., Potts R. (1959) Car Following Theory of Steady State Traffic Flow//Operations Research. Vol. 7. No. 4. P. 499-505.

Gazis D.C., Herman R., Rothery R. (1961) Nonlinear Follow-the-Leader Models of Traffic Flow//Operations Research. Vol. 9. No. 4. P. 545-567.

Highway Capacity Manual: 1965 (1965) Special Report 87 edition//Transportation Research Board.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Motorway Design Volume Guide 2017.

Jones D. (1985) Urban Transit Policy: An Economic and Political History. Prentice-Hall Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.V.

Litman T.A. (2023) Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning//Victoria Transport Policy Institute. Режим обращения:

https://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf (дата обращения: 28 June 2023).

Marchetti C. (1994) Anthropological Invariants in Travel Behavior//Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 47 (1). P. 75-88.

Pinjazi A.R. (2016). Highway Capacity Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles: An Assessment. Режим обращения: http://civil.iisc.ac.in/~abdul/uploads/9/6/7/8/9678119/.

Road Traffic Act 1988 (1988) Chapter 52. UK Public General Acts.

Sørensen P. (2010) Road Network Density in Major Metropolitan Areas//New Geography. Режим доступа: https://www.newgeography.com/content/001316-road-network-density-major-metropolitan-areas (дата обращения: 01.08.2010).

Suchanek M. (Ed.) (2021) Transport Development Challenges in the 21st Century//Proceedings of the 2019 TransSport Conference.

Sugrue T.J. (2006) The New Suburban History. University of Chicago Press.

The 6 Levels of Vehicle Autonomy Explained (2022) Synopsys. Режим обращения: https://www.synopsys.com/automotive/autonomous-driving-levels.html.

Transportation Research Circular E-C 149 (2011) 75 Years of the Fundamental Diagram for traffic flow theory, Greenshields Symposium//TRB Traffic Flow, Theory and Characteristics Committee.

Vellinga (2019) Automated driving and its challenges to international traffic law: which way to go?//Law, Innovation and Technology. Vol. 11 (2). P. 257-278.

DOI: 10.1080/17579961.2019.1665798.

Wegscheider A.K. et al. (2022) Shared, Autonomous, and Electric: An Update on the Reimagined Car//BCG. Режим обращения:

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/update-on-shared-autonomous-electric-vehicles-market (дата обращения: 30 July 2022).

Zhao G., Zheng X., Yuan Z., Zhang L. (2017) Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Road Networks and Urban Expansion//Land. Vol. 6 (2), 30. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/land6020030.

Published
2023-12-22
How to Cite
BlinkinM. Y., & KulakovaA. A. (2023). Autonomous Vehicles: Prospects and Expected Consequences of Expansion. Urban Studies and Practices, 8(1), 32-45. https://doi.org/10.17323/usp81202332-45