Autonomous Vehicles: Prospects and Expected Consequences of Expansion

Abstract

This article provides an overview of the prospects and expected consequences on the automotive market and traffic flow related to the mass appearance of autonomous vehicles (AV) . The term AV refers to vehicles equipped with software and hardware to assist the driver with "dynamic driving tasks", and ultimately will be capable of replacing the traditional "biological" driver with a "digital" one.

A modern 6-level classification of advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) is presented from Level 0 at which the car is equipped only with ABS, to Level 5 at which full driving automation is achieved. Level 5 vehicles do not require human attention, here "dynamic driving tasks" as such are eliminated from the user’s competence (no longer the driver!). Level 5 (fully automated) vehicles do not have a steering wheel, accelerator, or brake pedal.

Legal restrictions related to fundamental additions and changes to the Vienna Convention on Road Traffic of 1968, according to which “every vehicle or combination of vehicles shall have a driver”; “Every driver shall possess the necessary physical and mental abilities […] to drive” and “the knowledge and skills required for driving the vehicle” are also considered.

The article analyzes the expected positive and negative consequences associated with the mass appearance of Level 3, Level 4 and, especially, Level 5 vehicles. The emphasis is on the consequences of this phenomenon, which are of particular interest in the urban and transport-urban planning aspects such as the impact on land use and settlement formats, the transport behavior of individuals, the territorial preferences of households and companies, the capacity of roads, splitting the demand for movement between individual and public transаport, and road safety. The general conclusion is that the impact of the mass appearance of AV on the car market and traffic flow will be comparable in scale and long-term consequences to the process of mass motorization of the population started at the beginning of the 20th century.